Thursday, August 30, 2001

Staggering at the Brink

Today, Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. of the Institute on Energy and Man published World Oil Forecast #6 which concludes the following: "(1) 23 out of 44 nations [representing 99% of world oil production in 2000] have passed their production peaks, (2) 3 out of the 7 regions of the world have passed their peaks, (3) 4 out of 11 OPEC nations have passed their peaks, (4) Non-OPEC production will peak in 2003, (5) OPEC production in 2017, and (6) world oil production in 2005."

He warns at the end of his forcast that: "Industrial Civilization (IC), as it were, is now staggering at the brink of a sheer cliff so that a strong gust of ill wind (e.g., depression spook (many intuit what's happening), collapse of the Sumo Giant (Japan), the dot.com disease, resource and ethnic wars (e.g., Middle East, Macedonia, ad infinitum), boatloads of refugees, etc.) could topple the global IC at any time."

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