Archive for August, 2004

Working Together

Tuesday, August 31st, 2004

News of The Fossil Fuel Depletion Crisis is now reaching the media main stream. This article is reposted from the Dow Jones Newswire.


Falling Oil Output

Stella Farrington

Falling oil output from ageing fields, once insignificant compared with global production, has become large enough to impact world supply and may help explain the constant tightness in the oil market this year, according to analysts.

Oil production is now in decline in at least 18 major producing countries including the U.S., U.K. and OPEC members Indonesia and Venezuela, and total production from this group is falling by around 1 million barrels a day every year, according to the latest data.

The oil futures market can spike on a temporary outage of just a few hundred thousand barrels a day, so what is in effect a permanent outage of 1 million b/d may help explain some of the momentum behind the 53% rise in U.S. crude futures so far this year to near $50 a barrel, analysts who study depletion said.

“Depletion has become a serious issue for the oil market, and I believe it is contributing to market tightness,” said Chris Skrebowski, editor of the London-based Energy Institute’s Petroleum Review. Skrebowski has studied the issue using data from BP PLC’s (BP) widely-read Statistical Review of World Energy data.

“What it means is that before you meet a single barrel of demand growth you have to replace all the missing barrels,” he continued. “Depletion is really an extra demand. Countries where oil production is still expanding are being put under increasing pressure to make up growing depletion rates. It’s a huge drag on the system.”

And, as oil fields are ageing and their output declining even within countries where outright production is expanding, overall decline rates are estimated at closer to 3.5 million b/d.

Michael R. Smith, technical director of Energyfiles, an oil and gas information and forecasting service, estimates depletion from declining countries is running at even higher levels, at around 1.5 million b/d. Add in the declines at mature fields in expanding crude producers and an additional 5 million b/d is required to keep up with an average demand rise of 1.5 million b/d, he said.

“The 30 or so countries that can increase output will not only be required to satisfy demand growth of say 1.5 million b/d, but will also need to provide an additional approximately 1.5 million b/d each year to make up for the declining countries,” he added.

Depletion “A Foreign Concept” To Most

Global supply continues to grow overall despite the depletion, with flows in the second quarter of this year up 5% , or 4 million b/d, against a year ago, at 82.3 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency.

But as supply peaks and declines in more countries over the coming years, fewer nations will be left to make up the shortfall. Smith estimates production from declining countries makes up around 38% of global supply.

But few analysts factor such depletion into their forecasts.

“Depletion is a foreign concept to most people’s thinking,” said Henry Groppe, founding partner at Houston-based oil and gas consultancy Groppe, Long and Littell.

He has analyzed oil supply trends for 30 years. “So much of the world’s oil production is carried out by governments or companies vying for government money who have an incentive to stress new production. It’s not in their interests to point out that some of this will be swallowed up by declining fields.”

“People often take future supply forecasts for new fields and simply add it on to current production,” Smith said. “But current production could have dropped by the time the new field comes on stream leaving an overestimated supply figure.”

Calculating depletion rates is fraught with difficulties as each oil field is different. The IEA, the energy watchdog for the industrialized world, warns against looking at the issue simplistically, or in isolation.

“Depletion is very important and needs to be factored into forecasts,” said Klaus Rehaag, editor of the agency’s monthly oil report. He said the agency factors depletion into its forecasts field-by-field where possible, and offsets it against estimates of new growth. “But depletion is only one dimension,” he added. “Depletion may contribute to higher oil prices, but that will open up other opportunities” for investment.

Many analysts compare events in today’s oil market with the oil shocks of the 1970s and early 1980s. Oil peaked at almost $80 a barrel in today’s money after the Iranian revolution and triggered so much investment in oil production in non-OPEC countries that the world was swamped with crude which eventually drove prices down to just $10 a barrel by 1998.

But Groppe says the situation is different now. “In the ensuing years since 1979 we’ve had the opportunity to find and produce all the cheap oil,” he said. “Now what’s left is much more expensive, and there’s simply not going to be a flood of cheap crude hitting the market again.”

“High prices will draw forth some incremental supply,” Skrebowski said, “but the problem is one of timing.”

He estimates around 8 million b/d of new oil is expected up to 2007, though depletion will weaken its impact. After that, there is a dearth of new projects. “Because of the lead time, even if projects are started now they won’t impact until 2010. In 2008-2009 I think volumes are going to fall below requirements.”

Groppe agrees: “In order to merely replace lost production from now on, the industry needs to develop around 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. All our research indicates this won’t be possible.”

Copyright © 2004Dow Jones & Company Inc.

Working Together

Thursday, August 26th, 2004

Reposted from Culture Change.


The End of False Progress

Jan Lundberg

Not only has petroleum become an essential component of diet for modern societies, petroleum has also allowed people to separate themselves from the land that feeds them.  With petroleum instead of humans and animals doing so much work to produce and distribute food, the direct skills and relationships have gotten rusty.  Thus, new structures of land ownership have emerged, such as the agribusiness tracts of monocrops and toxicity that eliminate participation by masses of people.

During today’s age of separation from food  production, the social and political control of the masses has been refined and advanced.  Order will break down when urban people scramble to seize or produce food on land they don’t own.  Although the land could feed many of them sustainably if Permaculture were implemented, the lack of preparation indicates upheaval and die-off ahead.

Semi-abundant food-supply for a large population in a degraded ecosystem is a hope of those considering ìnew” or unusual sources of food and materials.  For example, seaweed, acorns and hempseeds could help feed untold thousands of people who today are relying on fossil-fueled factory farms for (polluting and unhealthful) meat and animal products.  Those who are already eating plenty of grain, beans and green vegetables are not far removed nutritionally and psychologically from eating a lot of seaweed, acorns and hempseeds.

If we stipulate that such ìunorthodox” foods are edible and proven as staples, it is just a matter of commencing their ìproduction” or collection – the sooner the better.  Knowledge is key and can resurrect traditions to assure palatability and efficiency.

We cannot include in the aforementioned diet the staple that was salmon.  Perhaps it can sill return in abundant numbers, but too many spawning streams have been trashed by roads and related activity.  Overfishing and pollution have taken their toll as well.

If only the end of the 1990s had featured the planting of fruit and nut trees all over urban and suburban areas throughout the petroleum-dependent world.  By now the trees would be bearing well and offering some food-security.   However, it is illegal in many cities to plant food-bearing plants and trees along roads, and parks don’t offer very useful trees either –– yet.

Wisdom of cultivation and the subeconomy

Alongside the measurable market economy there has always been an often undetectable “informal other half of economic activity, the world of self-sufficiency and barter of goods and services within a very small radius… even in industrialized countries.” [historian Fernand Braudel].  But no matter how creative people may be, the local environment eventually must provide the great majority of the source of life-giving resources.  In a petroleum-free economy, such as France three hundred years ago, three or four acres of very local cultivable land were required to support one adult, allowing for crop rotation.  Almost two hundred years ago in America one man, H. D. Thoreau, managed on one and a half acres.

Under Europe’s conditions in the late Middle Ages it was usual for bread or a kind of grain to be half a family’s food budget.  Although grains fed many, it also implied slavery, as the dependence resulted in famine from time to time.  On top of the vagaries of nature and farming, the market was an instrument of oppressive greed that hurt the many.  

One of the few times in the Middle Ages in Europe that life wasn’t tough for the peasants was the period after the Black Death because of helpful depopulation.  In today’s modern conditions, despite all our “progress”, once people are forced to embrace life after WalMart, after Safeway, after Shell, etc., an agricultural solution for a community might mean the return of a person typically subsisting on bread or a grain for half the diet.

Alternatives to civilization

Although people now feel comfortable with the idea of civilization for their whole lives, whether they love it or feel stuck with it, we should keep in mind that civilization’s grain-production basis is not the only way people have lived.  Indeed, it is very recent in human experience.  The rice field that developed in south China thousands of years ago became a factory and the basis of empire.  During this development the non-cultivated areas were left to a full biological diversity, but this co-existence eventually came to an end as humans and civilization encroached everywhere.  As long as we are being critical, let us ask:  Why would we only want to imagine going back to the Middle Ages?  There are easier ways of living off the land, if people are allowed to pursue them – involving more choice than whether to pursue livestocking.  After Petroleum Collapse, more options be possible because the global economy will be almost entirely gone, and depopulation will also lend itself to limited foraging.

Some people will get through their days by forcing themselves to drive harnessed animals, to the near exclusion of almost any other human activity.  In contrast, some areas rich in acorns will again support sustainable human populations, as was the case in the Peloponnese in ancient Greece.  In ancient Mexico cultivation of corn was so easy that it provided the basis of their diet at a cost of only working one day in seven or eight, according to the season.  However, it will be impossible for the whole overpopulated North American continent, for example, to all go back to the land for subsistence.  Today  people are conditioned to not want what they may soon crave after the petroleum facade crashes: they will want productive, healthy land and waters.  However, for several hundred years the dominant culture has looked down upon those who relied upon the hoe rather than the plow, and even lower at the bottom in Europeans’ notions of respect were the savages who lived (more easily) by gathering plants, hunting and fishing.  Modern peoples are taught,–– in order to keep them in line as productive workers –– to view natural areas as inhospitable.

The precursor of the ultimate worker/consumer society –– the European system of hierarchy –– bestowed upon modern people the notion that hierarchy is inevitable and that its raison d’ ´tre socially is to enjoy luxury.  The trouble is, an imbalance of essential needs amongst a population creates the basis of unnecessary shortages.  The shortages and catastrophes became necessary by virtue of attitudes and maintaining high populations for generating the elite’s wealth.  “Living standards are always a question of the number of people and the total resources at their disposal.” [Braudel]

Red meat, plagues, material culture

From the mid 14th century until sometime in the 18th century, Europe was plagued by frequent diseases whose pandemics decimated the population, especially the poor.  During this period, and before, disasters of crop failure were all too frequent as well.  The same means of population-reduction happened for centuries in other civilized/long-cultivated lands such as China and India, and these factors did not abate in those eastern lands as soon as they did in modern Europe.

Rather than argue how sustainable all these mostly agrarian societies were, or at what point overpopulation needed a correction the hard way, we can agree that the long experience of much deprivation and massive die-offs shaped peoples worldviews.  Such that, when famine and plague nearly disappeared with the rise of technology and the spread of industrial power, people came to imagine there has been great progress –– despite deforestation, the loss of the commons, the yoke of capitalism –– so we now cannot even think about “going back.”  The illusion of sustainable industrial culture is a key issue, but also something to argue elsewhere as we have done in many Culture Change Letters.

During the same period of pre-Renaissance until the Industrial Revolution, Europe had the further example of the aristocracy and bourgeoisie each proving to the masses of people that affluence and private property has its advantages.  More than advantages was the perception that wealth, material gain, manipulation of nature, abandoning tribal and community ties, and other trends in ways of living offered security and social acceptance.  The commons were enclosed, factories started to displace rural peoples and force them into cities.

John Trudell, native American poet, has pointed out that when the European invasion of the Americas occurred, white people had lost their tribal connections centuries ago and had been persecuted for not being pious enough as doctrinaire Christians.  As David Kubrin wrote in “Dead on Arrival: The Fate of Nature in the Scientific Revolution,” folk medicines, the power of women and the “magic of the woods” were destroyed as much as possible in order for the emerging ruling order to consolidate power and control the masses. (see Kubrin’s Culture Change magazine article).

Consider the major delusion that die-off is behind us: the bigger we are, the harder we fall.  And we have indeed grown very large on our petroleum diet of huge short-term agricultural productivity.  Modern people have almost all bought into the idea of eternal gross entropy at the hands of cars, refrigerators, computers and the like.  Every self-respecting, hardworking person does not want to think of him/herself as a polluting slave who has sold out for a little bag of silver, but “Mother Earth and Father Sky” have been betrayed.  Institutional Science and the rest of society’s propaganda machinery have told us everything is hunky-dory or, uhh, heading for some problems that technology and human ingenuity will just have to grapple with a little later, considering realpolitik!

Diet as a reflection of conditions and as a cause

Today´s availability for meat and animal products for the ìmodern diet” extends a former upper class/conqueror prerogative.  Lower populated and often aggressive cultures that husbanded or moved herds with success did not have to rely on the lower-protein, lower-calorie diets of vast numbers of people toiling in agriculture.

Instead, conquerors and rulers ate what they wished with little regard to constraints for the masses of people.  In addition to living on as much meat as they pleased, they could afford to reject the brown bran of wheat and rice and let animals have it.  The people who still ate brown grains, at the bottom mass of the social pyramid, were also used as animals by the rich elite.  Masses of people ate no end of vegetable matter even in heavily livestocked Europe.  The elite that get the best fresh meat dined on white bread too, and in Europe was no more than 4% of the population.  So it is no wonder the other 96% aspired to ape their oppressors and reach materialist comfort to perhaps save themselves from misery.

This historical pattern of meat and animal products as luxuries and status-symbols – even if common enough for certain rural folk in lower populated parts of northern Europe – has persisted and expanded.  With the advent of industrial and consumer-convenience practices, today the world has a record number of rich or would-be rich eating meat and animal products.

Not only do financially comfortable people continue their meat traditions, or cling to the higher-pyramid social strata´s habits of meat; today´s aspiring affluent peoples gravitate toward more meat and animal products.  ìGrain used for (animal) feed in China jumped more than fivefold in the past two decades.  Since 1960, the share of Chinese grain going to livestock tripled from 8 percent to 26 percent.  In Mexico, the share jumped from 5 percent to 45 percent over the same periodÖ” [Worldwatch, 1998]

Reliance on meat and animal products drags down the ecological capacity of land to provide not only maximum food for humans but to allow a large diversity of species.  About twenty times as much grain-based protein must be grown as meat for the equivalent in protein.  The effect of cattle on streams is devastating; in the U.S., livestock generates 130 times the waste that humans produce.  Neither of these considerations are known to masses of people getting the mainstream/public education and ingesting corporate/government propaganda.  When such people learn of the ecological (and therefore economic) considerations, they generally do nothing anyway to change their diets or other habits that waste land, water, energy and air.

Reasons for inaction on the individual level are different from factors in intransigence among profit-oriented ranch-subsidy corporations´ and governments´, regarding maintaining the status quo.  Material security and clinging to notions of success and abundance dictate that an individual or family must strive to forever ape the affluent and the advantaged classes.  ìNo, I will not eat just bean sprouts and corn; give me at least a pizza with sausage or pepperoni!”  The pizza serves a minor source of some (tainted, nonorganic) vegetables.

Refrigeration and freezing – high-energy processes that they are – along with oil-fueled distribution (and preparation), allow meat and animal products to spread and keep coming to today´s huge population.  The effect is to keep a growing, historically large segment of the population living comfortably, at least psychologically in that the ìprogress” of eating whatever one pleases for convenience, flavor and status is maintained.  The health-effects of the resultant cholesterol and toxic additives in today´s meat and animal products, partly from just the plastic packaging´s migration of carcinogens into food, are of little concern when it comes to either daily survival today or glimpsing serious changes ahead affecting daily living.  And besides, we are dumb, hungry animals like most species, and are a species that can be self-herded.  

Conclusions

The implications for (non) sustainability, apart from the delusions of true, natural wealth being dissipated so rapidly today, are grave.  Instead of modern suburbanites growing a fair amount of food in the form of grains and other vegetables in space used now by pavement and the biological pavement known as lawns, the consumers forego any form of local self-sufficiency, and so will soon starve.  They certainly will not be able to grow much food on the hoof with even their suburban expanses until perhaps a die-off of petro-fed consumers relinquish space for pastures and slaughter houses.  Keeping chickens, however, is anyone´s backyard option (if people could just think of living like a peasant instead of a TV-dinner imbecile facing socioeconomic collapse).  Fish ponds also present an easy source of abundant food on a sustainable basis, if there is an ecological design to assure productivity (e.g., through Permaculture). [Vietnam relies successfully on fish pond aquaculture.]

The plants of civilizations – wheat, rice and maize (corn) – were and remain the backbone of diet, even for conquerors and tycoons who depend on soldiers and workers getting enough of those foods to expand the civilization or to greedily milk the wealth of the land and peoples. 

Overall, ìprogress” in the individual´s mind depends on accepting imperialism and billionaires´ ability to ìcreate” fortunes.  How else to explain the stupidity of ìvoters” allowing predators and hogs to maintain ìleadership” (authority)?  

As long as ìcommon people” can be bought off with meat-topped pizzas and bedazzling technologies such as their own refrigerators, cars, DVD´s, etc., today´s virulent form of civilization is on a course to slam into an unmovable wall of resource-limits.  In fact, there is no time to avert the course or slow down in time to avoid devastating impact.  Fastening seat belts will not suffice.

We will simply be left gazing at the shattered illusion of progress around our feet, if we are among the lucky who are left standing.  The quick will have started running and grabbing what they can for short-term survival.  The long-term survivors will immediately start planting and depaving for more planting, and some will remember discussions and writings on sustainability.  Some will advocate, in a lawless environment, for living without central government.  Predators and parasites from outside the community will become useless and passÈ, while tools of sustainability will be welcome currency.




Note: Jan Lundberg was interviewed by National Public Radio on peak oil, petroleum dependency, petroleum alternatives, and the post-petroleum energy situation regarding possible lifestyles.  The show was to be broadcast Wednesday morning Aug. 25, 2004.

Sources: Fernand Braudel, The Structures of Everyday Life: The Limits of the Possible (volume one of Civilization and Capitalism 15th – 18th Century), Harper & Row, 1979

 United States Leads World Meat Stampede: Worldwatch Institute Press Release on July 02, 1998

Worldwatch Institute’s State of the World  Trends and Facts:  The State of Consumption Today

The Rise and Spread of the Consumer Class


Working Together

Monday, August 23rd, 2004

Reposted from Ocnus.net.


Ghawar is Fading

G.R. Morton

There are four oil fields in the world which produce over one million barrels per day. Ghawar, which produces 4.5 million barrels per day, Cantarell in Mexico, which produces nearly 2 million barrels per day, Burgan in Kuwait which produces 1 million barrels per day and Da Qing in China which produces 1 million barrels per day. Ghawar is, therefore, extremely important to the world’s economy and well being. Today the world produces 82.5 million barrels per day which means that Ghawar produces 5.5 percent of the world’s daily production. Should it decline, there would be major problems. As Ghawar goes, so goes Saudi Arabia.

The field was brought on line in 1951. By 1981 it was producing 5.7 million barrels per day. Its production was restricted during the 1980s but by 1996 with the addition of two other areas in the southern area of Ghawar brought on production, Hawiyah and Haradh, the production went back up above 5 million per day. In 2001 it was producing around 4.5 million barrels per day. There have been 3400 wells drilled into this reservoir.

I have noted elsewhere that the data I am being told by engineers who have actually worked on Ghawar, that this decade will see it’s peak. (Morton, 2004 PSCF in press). Others have noted how the percentage of water brought up with the oil has been growing on Ghawar. There are published reports that Ghawar has from 30-55% water cut. This means that about half the fluids brought up the well are water. Today the decline rate is 8%. Thousands of barrels per day of production must be added each year.

“The big risk in Saudi Arabia is that Ghawar’s rate of decline increases to an alarming point,” said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official with the National Iranian Oil Company. “That will set bells ringing all over the oil world because Ghawar underpins Saudi output and Saudi undergirds worldwide production.” Unfortunately for the world, few know the actual state of Ghawar. Cumulative production from the field is 55 billion barrels. In 1975 Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Texaco estimated that the ultimate recovery from the field would be 60 billion barrels. Without a doubt, new technologies have moved EURs from that which was possible in the mid 1970s. But the Saudis claim that the field can recover another 125 billion barrels. For someone like me who has spent a lifetime in the oil industry trebling the recovery factor is a fantasy we all wish we could do. But no one has ever figured out how. Thus, I doubt very much their claims, especially in light of the maps shown below.

But this is what is happening

“Saudi oilmen are usually a taciturn bunch, guarding their data like state secrets. But this was post September 11 and Riyadh was wooing western journalists and trying to restore the Saudis’ image as dependable, long-term suppliers of energy–not suicidal fanatics nor terrorist financiers. And it was working.

“Then the illusion slipped. On a whim I asked my hosts about another , older oilfield called Ghawar. It is the largest field ever discovered, its deep sandstone reservoir at one time had held perhaps one-seventh of the world’s known oil reserves, and its well produced roughly one of every 12 barrels of crude consumed on earth. In the iconography of oi, Ghawar is the mythical giant that makes most other fields look puny and mortal. . . .

“At Ghawar,’ he said, ‘they have to inject water into the field to force the oil out,’ by contrast, he continued, Shayba’s oil contained only trace amounts of water. At Ghawar, the engineer said, the ‘water cut’ was 30%.”

“The hairs on the back of my neck stood up. Ghawar’s water injections were hardly news, but a 30% water cut, if true, was startling. Most new oilfields produce almost pure oil or oil mixed with natural gas–with little water. Over time, however, as the oil is drawn out, operators must replace it with water to keep te oil flowing –until eventually what flows is almost pure water and the field is no longer worth operating.”

“Ghawar will not run dry overnight, but the beginning of the end of its oil is in sight.” Paul Roberts, “New Tyrants for Old as the Oil Starts to Run Out, ” Sunday Times (News Review), May 16, 2004, p. 8.

But this year at the Offshore Technology Conference some were talking about a 55% water cut for Ghawar. Part of this is because the Saudi’s inject large quantities of water into the reservoir and much of it comes back to the producing wells immediately though the system.

“Saudi Aramco is injecting a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water per day back into Ghawar, the world’s largest oilfield, in order to prop up pressure. It accounts for 30% of Saudi oil reserves and up to 70% of daily output.” “Doubts grow about Saudi As Global Swing Producer,” Aberdeen Press & Journal Energy, April 5, 2004, p. 15

But several people are becoming concerned about the ability of the Saudi’s to maintain production. Here is a tidbit from the Aberdeen Scotland Newspaper of a few weeks ago.

“It seems a growing number of analysts are falling into line with the Simmons & Company International view that Saudi Arabia may be running out of steam and may not be able to perform the role of global swing producer for many more years, despite being credited with oil reserves in the order of 260 billion barrels. The Centre for Global Energy Studies hinted at the beginning of the year that the kingdom appeared to be heading for difficulties. Now one of its analysts has said that having reserves does not equate to production capacity. Citing the Haradh field, he said it required 500,000 barrels per day of water injection to get out 300,000 bpd of oil. Moreover the problem is even more serious in the Khurais field.” “Doubts grow about Saudi As Global Swing Producer,” Aberdeen Press & Journal Energy, April 5, 2004, p. 15.

Since I am more and more working in the area of reservoir management, one of the things I have learned is that when you have to inject 500k barrels of water to get 300k barrels of oil, you will cycle water through that field like crazy. You won’t up the pressure so you are probably cycling at least 200,000 barrels per day of water through the field.

For those who don’t think there is a problem with the Saudi production, here are a couple of pictures of Ghawar from a 1996 report which shows the size of a 3d seismic section on the overall Ghawar field. The next picture is from the 3D showing the injection wells and the line in 1996 where the water had encroached.


Click for big version

The Uthmaniyah area is the oldest producing area on Ghawar. But the next picture shows that to the right of the line the oil is gone and all that is left is water The solid circles are or were oil producers. the open circles with arrows through them are where the water is injected to the reservoir to push the oil towards the producers (On the picture below this is from the right to the left. You can see that in this area, in 1996 the water had encroached halfway across Ghawar.The water must have moved further to the west today, 8 years later.


Click for big version


the various areas of Ghwar are outlined at a map found at:
http://web.inetba.com/gregcroftinc/images/Ghawar_map.gif


Click for big version

What is the future of Ghawar and Saudi production? It is not good.

“All production comes from ‘very old fields’, with no major exploration success since the 1960s, and almost every field has high and rising water cut.

“Saudi Aramco is injecting a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water per day back into Ghawar, the world’s largest oilfield, in order to prop up pressure. It accounts for 30% of Saudi oil reserves and up to 70% of daily output.” “Doubts grow about Saudi As Global Swing Producer,” Aberdeen Press & Journal Energy, April 5, 2004, p. 15

and

“The Wocap simulations for Saudi oil are presented in Fig. 5. They clearly show a long plateau at 8-10 million b/d. Here the main question is: How long can Saudi Arabia plateau at that level? Or in other words: Will it age gracefully? Much will depend on Ghawar. ì

ìWith 100 billion bbl of crude oil produced so far, Saudi Arabia should not be far from the midway point of its proved reserves of 260 billion bbl–that means just 10 years at the going rate of roughly 3 billion bbl/year. Bearing in mind the “spurious revision” of 1990 that boosted proved Saudi reserves to 257. billion bbl from 170 billion bbl, the midway point could happen even sooner than that. ì

ìFurthermore, the 35 billion bbl produced during 1990-2002 has not been accounted for, as Saudi “proved reserves” were still being reported at 260 billion bbl by the close of 2001. ìA. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, ìMiddle East Oil Production to Peak within next decade.” Oil and Gas Journal, July 7, 2003, p. 24.

One of the interesting things about Ghawar is the nature of its reservoir which provides an argument against an ideology I fight all the time, Young-earth Creationism. Ghawar is largely made of dung, which would be hard pressed to be concentrated during a global flood and thus contradicts the young-earth creationist claims.

ìMost massive and nonporous limestones contain textures made by invertebrate animals that ingest sediment and turn out fecal pellets. Usually, the pellets get squished into the mud. Rarely do the fecal pellets themselves form a porous sedimentary rock. In the 1970s the first native-born Saudi to earn a doctorate in petroleum geology arrived for a year of work at Princeton. I used the occasion to twist Aramco´s collective arm for samples from the supergiant Ghawar field. As soon as the samples were ready, I made an appointment with our Saudi visitor to examine the samples together using petrographic microscopes. That morning, I was really excited. Examining the reservoir rock of the world´s biggest oil field was for me a thrill bigger than climbing Mount Everest. A small part of the reservoir was dolomite, but most of it turned out to be a fecal-pellet limestone. I had to go home that evening and explain to my family that the reservoir rock in the world´s biggest oil field was made of shit.” Kenneth S. Deffeyes, ìHubbert´s Peak” (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001), p. 57-58.

Back to the serious issue of Ghawar, an almost poetic ode to the death of Ghawar can be found at http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html. As Ghawar goes, so goes the world.

Working Together

Wednesday, August 18th, 2004

Reposted from USA Today.


The Haves and the Havenots — 2004

 

Over two decades, the income gap has steadily increased between the richest Americans, who own homes and stocks and got big tax breaks, and those at the middle and bottom of the pay scale, whose paychecks buy less.

The growing disparity is even more pronounced in this recovering economy. Wages are stagnant and the middle class is shouldering a larger tax burden. Prices for health care, housing, tuition, gas and food have soared.

The wealthiest 20% of households in 1973 accounted for 44% of total U.S. income, according to the Census Bureau. Their share jumped to 50% in 2002, while everyone else’s fell. For the bottom fifth, the share dropped from 4.2% to 3.5%.

Jobs and the economy top the list of voter concerns this election year. President Bush touts a strong economy that is growing, but polls find that Americans have doubts and think jobs are scarce. John Kerry is trusted more on the economy, with Democrats talking regularly of “two Americas,” divided between the rich and everyone else.

That argument has merit, some private economists say.

“For those working in the bottom half of the pay scale, they’re under an enormous amount of pressure,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.

New government data also shows that President Bush’s tax cuts have shifted the overall tax burden to the middle class from the wealthiest Americans.

“We’re just trying to get ahead.” said Debbie Reames, 49, of Raytown, Mo., whose bank job of 24 years was sent overseas in February. “But it seems like we climb a few rungs and then we fall back again.”

Reames has a new secretarial job, which pays $7,000 a year less than her bank job, and she works catering jobs for extra money. Her husband, Russ, can no longer work after an injury. One son is finishing college and another will start in the fall.

So the family budget tightened. That meant fewer cable channels, more meals at home, postponed doctor appointments, missed vacations, delayed credit card payments, all to “keep the wolf away from the door,” she said.

The U.S. jobs market is soft, sending wages down. Hiring came to a near standstill last month, with companies adding just 32,000 new jobs overall, stunning economists who had expected seven times as many.

More than a million jobs have been added back to the 2.6 million lost since Bush took office, but they pay less and offer fewer benefits, such as health insurance. The new jobs are concentrated in health care, food services, and temporary employment firms, all lower-paying industries. Temp agencies alone account for about a fifth of all new jobs.

Three in five pay below the national median hourly wage – $13.53, said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo.

On a weekly basis, the average wage of $525.84 is at the lowest level since October 2001.

The income gap is showing up in booming sales of luxury items. Porsche Cars North America Inc. says sales are up 17% for the year. Strong sales at Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Saks Fifth Avenue overshadow lackluster sales at stores such as Wal-Mart, Sears and Payless Shoes.

Real estate agent Lance Anderson, 38, of Overland Park, Kan., expects a record sales year, as homeowners upgrade to more expensive homes and commercial clients expand. He recently took his family to Disney World for a two-week Florida vacation.

“My clientele, it seems as a whole, has seen positive growth,” he said. So his family, including three children, now eat out more often and spend more on clothes. They recently bought two new cars and anticipate buying a larger house in the next few years.

Economists say wages should rise as companies boost hiring. But the growing gap between the haves and have-nots will remain.

Technology has eliminated many U.S. jobs, as has global competition, particularly from low-wage countries such as China. Highly skilled, educated workers in America will thrive as demand rises, Sohn said, while low-skilled jobs remain vulnerable to outsourcing.

“This really has nothing to do with Bush or Kerry, but more to do with the longer-term shift in the structure of the economy,” Sohn said.

Copyright 2004 The Associated Press

Working Together

Thursday, August 12th, 2004

This recent article is reposted from The Nation. … As we move into the hottest time of year here in California, it is a time for reflection.


Boiling Point

Ross Gelbspan

Climate change is not just another issue. It is the overriding threat facing human civilization in the twenty-first century, and so far our institutions are doing dangerously little to address it. Americans in particular are still in denial, thanks largely to the efforts of the fossil-fuel industry and its allies in the Bush Administration. But the nation’s biggest environmental organizations and opposition politicians have also displayed a disturbing lack of leadership on this crucial challenge.

They are by no means the only roadblocks to meaningful action on climate change. In addition to the Bush Administration and the fossil-fuel lobby, the failure of the press to cover the climate crisis has left the United States ten years behind the rest of the world in addressing this issue. Given this background, the failure of environmentalists to fill the informational and political vacuum is especially distressing.

Over the past decade, the arguments against the reality of climate change by the carbon lobby have been as inconsistent as the weather itself. During the early years of the 1990s, the fossil-fuel lobby insisted that global warming was not happening. In the face of incontrovertible findings by the scientific community, the industry then conceded that climate change is happening but is so inconsequential as to be negligible. When new findings indicated that the warming is indeed significant, the spokesmen for the coal and oil industries then put forth the argument that global warming is good for us.

But the central argument that big coal and big oil have spent millions of dollars to amplify over the past decade is that the warming is a natural phenomenon on which human beings have little or no impact. That argument has been repeatedly discredited by the world’s leading climate scientists. Under the auspices of the United Nations, more than 2,000 scientists from 100 countries have participated over the past fifteen years in what is most likely the largest, most rigorously peer-reviewed scientific collaboration in history. In 1995 the UN-sponsored panel found a “discernible human influence” on the planet’s warming climate. The scientists subsequently concluded that to stabilize our climate requires humanity to cut its use of coal and oil by 70 percent in a very short time.

The Kyoto Protocol, by contrast, calls for industrial countries to cut aggregate emissions by just 5.2 percent by 2012. That is a woefully inadequate response; as British Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted in 2002, “Even if we deliver on Kyoto, it will at best mean a reduction of one percent in global emissions…. In truth, Kyoto is not radical enough.”

Nevertheless, the current low goals of the Protocol are championed by many Americans who should know better, including leading Democrats like John Kerry and virtually every national environmental organization. Confronted by the steel wall of resistance of the fossil-fuel lobby and their political allies, most climate activists and sympathetic politicians have retreated into approaches that are dismally inadequate to the magnitude of the challenge.

Around the country, advocates are working to get people to drive less, turn down their thermostats and reduce their energy use. Unfortunately, while many environmental problems are susceptible to lifestyle changes, climate change is not one of them.

Several of the country’s leading national environmental groups are promoting limits for future atmospheric carbon levels that are the best they think they can negotiate. But while those limits may be politically realistic, they would likely be environmentally catastrophic. Most advocates, moreover, are relying on goals and mechanisms that were proposed about a decade ago, before the true urgency of the climate crisis became apparent. In 2000, researchers at the Hadley Center, Britain’s main climate research institute, found that the climate will change 50 percent more quickly than was previously assumed. Their projections show that many of the world’s forests will begin to turn from sinks (vegetation that absorbs carbon dioxide) to sources (which release it)–dying off and emitting carbon–by about 2050. In 1998 a team of researchers reported in the journal Nature that unless the world is getting half its energy from noncarbon sources by 2018, we will see an inevitable doubling–and possible tripling–of atmospheric carbon levels later in this century.

Virtually all the approaches by activists in the United States, moreover, are domestic in nature. They ignore both the world’s developing countries and, equally important from the standpoint of national security, the oil-producing nations of the Middle East. Ultimately, even if the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan were to cut emissions dramatically, those cuts would be overwhelmed by the coming increase of carbon from India, China, Mexico, Nigeria and all the other developing countries struggling to stay ahead of poverty.

Many alternative approaches rely on market-based solutions because their proponents believe that, in an age of market fundamentalism, no other approach can gain political traction. Unfortunately, nature’s laws are not about supply and demand; they are about limits, thresholds and surprises. The progress of the Dow does not seem to influence the increasing rate of melting of the Greenland ice sheet; the collapse of the ecosystems of the North Sea will not be arrested by an upswing in consumer confidence.

Many groups justify the minimalist goals of making people more energy efficient as the first phase in building a political base for more aggressive action. In the past, that pattern has been successful in developing various movements. In the case of climate change, however, nature’s timetable is very different from that of political organizers. Unfortunately, the signals from the planet tell us we do not have the luxury of waiting another generation to allow for the orderly maturation of a movement.

Finally, the environmental establishment insists on casting the climate crisis as an environmental problem. But climate change is no longer the exclusive franchise of the environmental movement. Any successful movement must include horizontal alliances with groups involved in international relief and development, campaign finance reform, public health, corporate accountability, labor, human rights and environmental justice. The real dimensions of climate change directly affect the agendas of a wide spectrum of activist organizations.

The environmental movement has proved it cannot accomplish large-scale change by itself. Despite occasional spasms of cooperation, the major environmental groups have been unwilling to join together around a unified climate agenda, pool resources and mobilize a united campaign on the climate. Even as the major funders of climate and energy-oriented groups hold summit meetings in search of a common vision, they shy away from the most obvious of imperatives: using their combined influence and outreach to focus attention–and demand action–on the climate crisis. As the major national groups insist on promoting exclusive agendas and protecting carefully defined turfs (in the process, squandering both talent and donor dollars on internecine fighting), the climate movement is spinning its wheels.

Take the critical issue of climate stabilization–the level at which the world agrees to cap the buildup of carbon concentrations in the atmosphere. The major national environmental groups focusing on climate–groups like the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Union of Concerned Scientists and the WWF (World Wildlife Fund)–have agreed to accept what they see as a politically feasible target of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide. While the 450 goal may be politically realistic, it would likely be environmentally catastrophic. With carbon levels having risen by only 90 parts per million (from their pre-industrial level of 280 ppm to more than 370 ppm today), glaciers are now melting into puddles, sea levels are rising, violent weather is increasing and the timing of the seasons has changed–all from a 1-degree Fahrenheit rise in the past century. Carbon concentrations of 450 ppm will most likely result in a deeply fractured and chaotic world.

The major national environmental groups, moreover, are trapped in a Beltway mentality that measures progress in small, incremental victories. They are operating in a Washington environment that is at best indifferent and at worst actively antagonistic. And too often these organizations are at the mercy of fickle funders whose agendas range from protecting wetlands to keeping disposable diapers out of landfills.

The fossil-fuel lobby has hijacked America’s energy and climate policies. One appropriate response might involve environmental leaders’ forging a coalition of corporate and financial institutions of equivalent force and influence to counteract the carbon industry’s stranglehold on Congress and the White House.

The vast majority of climate groups shun confrontation and work instead to get people to reduce their personal energy footprints. That can certainly help spread awareness of the issue. But by persuading concerned citizens to cut back on their personal energy use, these groups are promoting the implicit message that climate change can be solved by individual resolve. It cannot. Moreover, this message blames the victim: People are made to feel guilty if they own a gas guzzler or live in a poorly insulated home. In fact, people should be outraged that the government does not require automakers to sell cars that run on clean fuels, that building codes do not reduce heating and cooling energy requirements by 70 percent and that government energy policies do not mandate decentralized, home-based or regional sources of clean electricity.

What many groups offer their followers instead is the consolation of a personal sense of righteousness that comes from living one’s life a bit more frugally. That feeling of righteousness, coincidentally, is largely reserved for wealthier people who can afford to exercise some control over their housing and transportation expenditures. Many poorer people–who cannot afford to trade in their 1990 gas guzzlers for shiny new Toyota Priuses–are deprived of the chance to enjoy the same sense of righteousness, illusory though it may be.

Given the lock on Congress and the White House by the carbon lobby, there is no way the US government will pursue a rapid global energy transition without a massive uprising of popular will. Environmentalists should therefore be forging alliances with other activists who focus on international development, campaign finance reform, corporate accountability, public health, labor, environmental justice and human rights–not to mention with communities of faith–to mobilize a broad, inclusive constituency around the issue.

The tragedy underlying the failure of the environmental community lies in the fact that so many talented, dedicated and underpaid people are putting their lives on the line in ways that will make little difference to the climate crisis. They are outspoken in their despair about what is happening to the planet. They are candid about their acceptance of a self-defeating political realism that requires relentless accommodation. What is missing is an expression of the rage they all feel.

The United States did not withdraw from Vietnam because a few individuals moved to Canada or Sweden to avoid military service or because the leaders of the antiwar movement negotiated a reduction of the bombing runs over Vietnam. The United States left Vietnam because a sustained uprising of popular will forced one President of the United States to drop his plans for re-election and pressured his successor to scramble until he had achieved something he could call “peace with honor.”

These comparisons to the climate movement may be seen as too harsh until one considers the most fundamental fact about the climate crisis: Activists compromise. Nature does not.

Copyright 2004 The Nation


The Heat is Online.