Monday, February 14, 2005

Reposted from ABC in Australia.

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An Interview with Ron Nielsen

Eleanor Hall

Now to some alarming scientific research on the state of the planet: destructive climate change; the depletion of energy, food and fish stocks; a looming shortage of fresh water and social chaos.

According to a detailed survey which will be launched later this month, the human race is facing extinction in a matter of decades and will run out of some critical resources in just a few years.

The Little Green Handbook, which examines the ecological limits of human life on earth, warns that for the first time in human history we are approaching these limits, and in some cases have already crossed them.

But while this research is wide-ranging, looking not just at the physical environment but at social trends as well, it's been conducted by a scientist within a very specific discipline.

Dr Ron Nielsen is a nuclear physicist. Born in Poland he has worked at the Australian National University as well as research institutes throughout Europe and his work has been published in scientific journals internationally.

When Dr Nielsen spoke to me from our Brisbane studio he explained to me why as a nuclear physicist he is qualified to make these warnings about the future of the human race on the planet.

RON NIELSEN: The main advantage which I have is a long research in science, because one has to be very careful with the data which are presented with the discussion and I have to say I was disappointed with people who are very enthusiastic about environmental issues, but they present distorted views, and this is not good, because people, some time, they will discover that they are being misled, so I think what I brought into this book is a sober and clear assessment of the situations which we have in the world.

ELEANOR HALL: It's sober and clear and very mathematical in its way, and yet you also paint a quite frightening picture. You say that never before has the human race been so threatened and that we're reaching the ecological limits on a number of fronts. Were you surprised at just how dire the evidence was as you did your research?

RON NIELSEN: In a way, I was. I felt that the situation is not good, but in many areas I was surprised at how bad it is. The aim of my book was not to frighten people, not to make them panic or not to paint a doomsday scenario.

My aim was to analyse the problem, present the problem as it is and then leave to the people to use their intelligence and their initiative to do something about it.

ELEANOR HALL: So where are we reaching ecological limits?

RON NIELSEN: As far as global consumption is concerned, which includes food and energy and material resources, we are already over the limit. We have reached the limit around 1975, 76.

This is measured by so-called footprint, global footprint. So we have crossed this limit. But we are going to various limits, and you have to look to regional areas.

Globally water supply, we still have the adequate amount of water, but if you look at regional areas we are over the limit in a wide range of countries, so we are crossing the limits in various areas, but definitely in overall consumption we have passed the limit.

ELEANOR HALL: So what do people need to do to address these problems?

RON NIELSEN: Well, we can't solve everything, but in the area of destruction of atmosphere and climate change, definitely we have to do it quickly, immediately, take steps to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, of carbon dioxide and develop alternative sources of energy, we have to do it much faster and much more energetically.

This could have the most dramatic effect on our planet. I mean, it is unbelievable, it is unthinkable that we human beings can change climate, global climate, that we can influence the atmosphere.

Now, the new research, which I don't mention in the book because it is just the latest research, the results this year show that we are changing acidity of the oceans. Can you imagine that?

We have influence on the acidity of the oceans on the huge reservoirs of water. This will have devastating affect on life in oceans, on coral reefs, and again on protection of coastal regions.

We have strong influence on our planet, and this is probably the area which might bring us to our knees.

ELEANOR HALL: Do you think that your book will have an impact on world leaders to change their point of view on global warming and to make them confront this more urgently?

RON NIELSEN: Look, Eleanor, I believe that I have strong confidence in people's power. I have strong belief in people's intelligence and I believe that the book which will be read, I hope that it will be read by the common people, people have so much ability to invent various ways of solving problems.

I hope that this book will create a tide of response among common people and they will be able to influence the leaders in the Government and whatever leaders in business, there is a lot of power there and I expect that this will be the response because I have written the book in such a way that anyone can read.

ELEANOR HALL: If things don't change though, you seem to be suggesting that the survival of the human race is in peril?

RON NIELSEN: Yes it is, unfortunately it is and we have to take it, uh, we have to face the fact. We are facing global crisis. We are facing the problem of our survival for the first time in the history of the human race we have many things which are happening which threaten our survival on this planet.

ELEANOR HALL: If there is so clearly a rapidly approaching crisis, why do you think that there is no real sense of panic yet amongst world leaders?

RON NIELSEN: I think in a way human nature is that we still hope that things will go on as they were going on for ages and ages. We cannot accept that something unusual is happening because we don't have the whole picture of it, and that's why I wanted to paint a whole picture of it, I've included all critical trends.

When we have all in one place, then we shall be able to appreciate it. I don't think that we can do everything, we can solve all the problems, but we have… we still have a chance to soften the blow, to have perhaps a softer landing. If we do it quickly, we have a chance.

ELEANOR HALL: And that's Dr Ron Nielsen, an internationally renowned nuclear physicist whose survey of the state of the planet, The Little Green Handbook, will be launched in Australia later this month.