Tuesday, July 17, 2007
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Republished from ASPO-USA.
A 10% Reduction in America's Oil Use in Ten to Twelve Years
Alan S. Drake
Step One – Electrify US Freight Rail Lines and Shift Freight to Rail
Japanese and most European railroads are electrified. The Russians
recently finished electrifying the Trans-Siberian Railroad, from Moscow
to the Pacific, and to the Arctic port of Murmansk. So there are no
technical limitations. Electrifying railroads and transferring half the
truck ton-miles to rail should save 6.3% of US oil consumption.
Electrified railroads also expand rail capacity since they accelerate and brake faster.
Today’s diesel railroads are roughly eight times more energy-efficient
than heavy diesel trucks. Railroads carried 27.8% of the ton-miles with
220,000 barrels/day while trucks carried 32.1% of the ton-miles with
2,070,000 b/day (2002 data).
When we convert trains to electricity, the rule of thumb is that 1 Btu
of electricity will do the work of 2.5 Btus of diesel on rural plains,
and 1 to 3 in mountainous and urban areas. Generating electricity back
into the grid when braking is the difference.
These savings are multiplicative. Switch freight from truck to diesel
rail (x8 savings) and electrify the railroad (x2.5 savings) and end-use
goes from 20 BTUs of diesel to one BTU of electricity.
Faced with cheap oil and toll-free interstate highways for decades, US
railroads reduced their capacity (often by tearing up one of two
tracks) and ceded much cargo to trucking. Today, intermodal shipments
(local trucking, long distance by rail via containers) are growing
rapidly – but this trend must be accelerated.
USA railroads have pointed to property taxes as the reason that they
have not electrified (no taxes on their diesel, property taxes on
electrification infrastructure). Exempting any rail line that
electrifies from property taxes under the Interstate Commerce clause
would promote the rapid electrification of many rail lines. Expanding
capacity would then be more economically attractive without the burden
of property taxes. Removing property taxes on electrified rail lines
would take the thumb off the scale in the economic competition between
rail and trucks. Trucks pay no property taxes, directly or indirectly,
on their right-of-way. Trains do. Local property tax losses above a
certain percentage of total taxes could have the excess compensated by
the Federal Government.
Step Two – Increase Urban Rail Federal FundingBuilding the gas-saving equivalent of twelve DC Metros would save 4% of
US oil use (6% of transportation oil use). New electric mass transit
will benefit the USA much more than new highways.
In 1970, 4% of DC commuters used city buses to get to work. Today over
40% use public transit. The difference is the 106 miles of Washington
Metro. Washington Metro saves between a half-billion and a billion
gallons of gasoline per year; changes in urban and suburban development
patterns contribute to these savings. Such savings will only increase
over time.
Miami passed a sales tax to build a 103-mile system of elevated "
Subway in the Sky". [brown lines are 2016+]
Twenty-five years to build a system that will save billions of gallons
of gasoline: why so long? Limited Federal Transit Administration (FTA)
funding. Robust federal funding would result in an explosion of urban
rail, from streetcars to light rail and rapid rail, combined with
widespread commuter rail.
The Interstate Highway system was built with 90% federal funding; yet
federal funding for new urban rail has been cut from 80% to de facto
30%.
The United States once built 500 electric streetcar systems in 20
years. Most towns of 25,000 and larger built a non-oil electrical
transportation system. The USA did this with a population of less than
one-third of today's, approximately 3% of today's GNP, and simple
technology. We did it once; we can do it again!
Step Three – Promote Electric Trolley BusesThey require electrical infrastructure but electric trolley buses are
cheaper and lighter, they last longer, they are pollution-free, and are
quiet, smooth (much less jerky) and more attractive to passengers than
fossil-fuel buses.
The FTA currently funds 80% of bus replacement costs on a twelve-year
cycle; 15 years might be more appropriate. Perhaps FTA could fund
fossil-fuel replacement buses on a 13.5-year cycle at 75% and trolley
buses (with their electrical infrastructure) at 92%.
Step Four – Promote Transportation BicyclingOnly 0.4% of Americans commute by bike to work; 3.5% of Portland (OR)
commuters use bicycles. Increasing the national average of bicycling
commuting will have a measurable impact on oil consumption, and public
health. Bicycling, like rail, has “Elasticity of Supply” in an
emergency. Local steps plus national support, including making it
patriotic to bicycle and walk, can help.
Step Five – Create a Strategic Railcar Reserve (SRR) to Supplement the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
One future scenario: The Islamic Republic of Arabia replaces the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the new Islamic Republic cuts exports to
buy just essentials. The USA would face a severe and prolonged oil
supply interruption.
The US government would immediately institute a variety of oil
conservation measures and start draining the SPR. Demand would swamp
the capacity of every urban rail system in the country. Freight
railroads and Amtrak would be overwhelmed. Soon more severe oil demand
restrictions would be required, such as rationing.
Every urban rail system will need more rolling stock. Rail cars are the
first limiting factor. Freight railroads and Amtrak will need more cars
as well.
More rolling stock will reduce USA oil demand and allow the SPR to last
a few days longer. Once the SPR is exhausted, the SRR (and all the
steps above) will still be benefiting the nation. Rail cars are made in
the USA, their benefit will last much longer than barrels of oil, they
can be used and not disappear in minor oil supply interruptions, and
they are cheaper, per barrel saved, than $100+ oil in a prolonged
emergency.
Urban rail systems should estimate demand in the case of an oil supply
interruption and what would be required to handle this demand.
Sometimes retired cars could be mothballed, but usually new cars would
be required for the SRR.
SummaryTwenty BTUs of diesel fuel consumption replaced by one BTU of
electricity is the energy trade by shifting from heavy trucks to
electrified railroads. Replacing 2 million barrels/day of heavy truck
diesel fuel would take just 1.4% of US electricity.
Transportation uses 0.19% of US electrical demand today. The
gasoline-saving equivalent of a dozen new DC Metros would likely double
that 0.19% figure.
These proposals would complement the widely discussed steps of higher
CAFE, etc.. They are complementary and not mutually exclusive. And
these steps can start immediately, they require no new technology, and
they would have a significant impact in the medium term.
These steps would be faster than drilling in the Alaskan National
Wildlife Refuge, would produce at least twice as much oil savings as
ANWR would produce at its peak, and would never deplete (Prudhoe Bay is
producing at 20% of its peak, Washington Metro hits a new peak in oil
saved every year).
Sometimes good public policy is good politics. Reducing US oil
consumption, reducing greenhouse gases, improving the US economy,
reducing congestion, providing non-oil transportation alternatives, and
reducing the number of 18-wheel trucks on the highways should be both
good public policy and good politics!
Alan Drake is a consulting engineer and reformed accountant who has
combined his interests in the iconic St. Charles streetcars 2.5 blocks
from his home in New Orleans and Urban Rail in general, plus experience
with engineering for efficiency. He is searching for economic solutions
that address both global warming and post-peak oil issues.